Model archived Grow A Colony Snake odds at 2.5% per completed Raid. Update 5.9 recorded three Raid waves, so count full completions, not individual waves.
The formula remains correct for independent 2.5% attempts, but the input comes from the archived Update 5.5 description. Update 5.9 recorded three Raid waves. Update 6 does not itemize a Raid change; recheck the live structure before using the historical guide. No new Snake rate is published.
Do not enter individual waves. Enter only a full Raid count after the current game confirms completion.
Whole numbers from 0 to 10,000. The calculation stays in your browser.
40 Raids are not a guarantee. At 40 full completions, the modeled no-drop chance is still 36.3%.
The formula assumes each full completed Raid is independent and uses the archived 2.5% rate. Update 6 does not reconfirm that rate.
Each new attempt can only succeed if the earlier attempts did not already produce Snake.
One completion has a 97.5% chance of no Snake: 1 − 0.025.
Raise 0.975 to the number of completed raids to model no Snake across all attempts.
1 − 0.975raids gives the chance of getting Snake at least once.
Rounded to one decimal place for display.
| Completed raids | At least one Snake | No Snake yet |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| 5 | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| 10 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| 20 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 28 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 40 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 50 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 60 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 80 | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| 100 | 92.0% | 8.0% |
One full Raid confirmed complete by the live result can contribute at most one modeled completion unless a current official source explicitly confirms a different reward check. The mean waiting count is 40, not a pity checkpoint; no guarantee or changing odds are claimed.
Compare the free raid route with Snake (Perm).
See confirmed Snake additions and open mechanics.
Return to the current-first version log.
Follow all three current waves before recording one full Raid.
Verify the live version before using the historical rate.
It uses 1 − (1 − 0.025) raised to the number of completed raids, which gives the chance of at least one success across independent attempts.
Enter full completed Raids only. Update 5.9 recorded three waves, but no current source confirms one Snake roll per wave.
The current public description does not restate it. This calculator preserves the archived Update 5.5 model.
Twenty-eight completed raids produce about a 50.8% chance under the independent 2.5% model.
No. Forty completions produce about a 63.7% chance of at least one Snake and a 36.3% chance of no Snake.
Yes. The model gives about a 92.0% success chance and an 8.0% no-drop chance after 100 independent completions.
No. It uses only the raid count entered in your browser and does not request a username, credential, or account connection.
